Ep 30: How to Survive a Bear Market
S01
/
Ep
30

Ep 30: How to Survive a Bear Market

What’s the key to surviving a bear market, whether you are in retirement or you are preparing for retirement? A dip in the market may seem scary but it can be an opportunity for investors as well.

Surviving a bear market is all about balance and avoiding emotional decision-making that can harm your portfolio. An advisor helps remove the emotion from investing, let’s not let our emotions guide our decisions. With the looming possibility of a recession there’s a lot of advice floating around out there, who should you be listening to?

Summary

Seize the opportunity to transform your financial reality even amidst a bear market. We promise to equip you with the knowledge and strategies you need to thrive, even when the market isn't cooperating. Join us as we plunge into the wisdom of financial author Sam Robson and financial advisor Grant Sullivan, who stress the importance of maintaining rationality during tumultuous times and leveraging market dips to your advantage. Learn about the criticality of a strategic financial plan and the power of having cash on hand to seize golden opportunities that may arise when you least anticipate them.

Our conversation then pivots to the essential skill of rebalancing your portfolio and making informed financial decisions. Stride through the bear market using the advice of Warren Buffett that teaches you to be cautious yet opportunistic when others are fearful. Discover the advantageous nature of dollar-cost averaging and consistent contributions to your 401k, regardless of the market's volatility. Whether you are grappling with apprehensions about the bear market or aiming to maximize its potential, this enlightening conversation will arm you with the insights to navigate those tricky financial waters with confidence and poise.

Full Transcript

0:00:00 - Speaker 1

Discussions in this show should not be construed as specific recommendations or investment advice. Always consult with your investment professional before making important investment decisions. Securities offered through registered representatives of Cambridge Investment Research Inc. A broker-dealer member, finra, sipc Advisory Services through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors Inc. A registered investment advisor. Cambridge and Greenway Wealth Advisory are not affiliated. It's time to dive into some insider secrets of investing and retirement planning. To make your retirement as smart and as elegant as possible.

0:00:28 - Speaker 2

This is Money.

0:00:29 - Speaker 1

Chic with Sherry Rash.

0:00:31 - Speaker 2

Hey everybody, welcome into the podcast. Another edition of Money Chic, women and Retirement with Sherry Rash and myself, and we're going to talk about analyzing some advice on surviving this bear market. We find ourselves in or at, or around, and the various, I guess, depending on the indices, so we're going to chat about that a little bit. We've taken some comments from various folks around the across the country and on the interwebs. Here we're going to get Sherry to dissect their statements, their talking head statements, and see what she thinks. What's going on, sherry, how you doing.

0:01:02 - Speaker 3

Doing alright. I'm in mid-vacation but have to record Money Chic. Money Chic takes no vacation.

0:01:11 - Speaker 2

Well, we appreciate your dedication.

0:01:13 - Speaker 1

That's absolutely.

0:01:14 - Speaker 2

That's right. That's right. Taking a vacation and still jumping? Now let's be honest. Are you taking a vacation, from the vacation for a minute to an hour, to spend time with us? Is that what it is?

0:01:22 - Speaker 3

With four children, any opportunity to sneak away is vacation.

0:01:28 - Speaker 2

I was going to let you say that I was going to figure it out a way to politically say that nicely, a little PC-ness there. So a little vacation on the vacation.

Well, good, Well thanks for hanging out with us. We'll knock this out so you can get back to doing some other activities with family. But you know, obviously, as I mentioned, sherry, we're kind of in this, like some indices are definitely into bear market. I think the Dow has flirted and then it came back out, and so on and so forth. So, but regardless, right, we're hearing lots. Well, there's lots of turmoil. We're hearing the R word. Two weeks ago, janet Yellen said, oh, at the time we're taping this, you said, oh, no, you know, recession is not imminent. Now they're saying it's imminent, you know so it's just every other day. It's something right. So let's talk about some of this stuff. Maybe folks have heard some of these advice or some of these sayings themselves and and should be followed or proceed with caution. So I'm going to let you break it down and give us your perspective, ok sounds good.

OK, let's jump in with the first one here. He's a financial author. Hopefully I get all these names right. If I don't, I apologize, but Sam Robson, or Robeson, says the bear market is a fantastic opportunity for long term investors, long term being the key phrase.

0:02:33 - Speaker 3

He's not wrong there. He's not wrong. It is a fantastic opportunity. But I would say for any investor, when the con of a bear market is, obviously our investments are losing value and we're experiencing that every day right now with the volatility that we're seeing. But that also means, if you look at it with a glass half full perspective, that investments are cheap. Right now, there are definitely buying opportunities. If you've had cash on the sidelines, this is a great time to get in short or long term investors, even if retirement is in the horizon, if you've had cash on the sidelines, it's a good opportunity to get it working for you. Obviously, the long term investors will be able to appreciate this downside volatility even more because they have a longer time to have their investments eventually go up in value, because it will. Everything goes up in the end. But so I don't disagree. I would just say this is a fantastic opportunity for any investor to take advantage of right now.

0:03:36 - Speaker 2

Now you mentioned cash on the sidelines. There Is that kind of the key for, I guess, buying when we're in a dip, so to speak by the dip right, is having that cash available.

0:03:46 - Speaker 3

That's a big thing. If you have the cash available, get it working for you better than what the bank is giving you. Yeah, get that cash working for you Absolutely.

0:03:57 - Speaker 2

Okay, all right, and yes, I mean not exactly groundbreaking insight there from Sam, but accurate, right, I mean, and this is, we know this. But this is the problem. Actually feeds very well to our next comment, because the problem is is we know the whole buy low right we're hearing by the dip, but then people go well, when's the? You know, is this the dip or is the dip still coming? You know that kind of thing. And so what happens is we get all emotional about it. And that leads to the second comment here from columnist and financial advisor Grant Sullivan. He says to beware of making emotional decisions in these turbulent times because they often are more costly than we think, and I'm certainly that can be the case. If you're being, I guess, if you're panicking right, you could be making a move that is bad for you. However, if you're maybe buying too much or being too aggressive in a downturn, that could potentially be bad. So it's all about balance.

0:04:47 - Speaker 3

Right. I would say most financial advice isn't groundbreaking. It's reminding you to remove the emotion from from the process of investing. That's a great point, yeah, so I? I'm obviously getting lots of phone calls right now and clients are getting nervous and or they just need some reassurance.

0:05:07 - Speaker 1

And.

0:05:07 - Speaker 3

I remind them that my job as their advisor is to remove the emotion from investing, and by just reminding them of buying in the dips. This is a good opportunity for long you know for for investing let's not let our emotions guide our decisions is very valuable and I think that we forget it. If we look at headlines they're sensational. The news is sensational. It's designed to create emotion out of you. So by then going back to your advisor or your trusted resource to help sift through the emotion and just have you focus on the reality of the situation and where to make decisions or not make decisions, because no decision is also a decision at times, oh yeah, absolutely.

Yeah, Making those emotional decisions in turbulent times is is definitely costly and the statistics show that. Bear markets they rebound, right it rebounds, and oftentimes some of the best days in the market are right after bear markets in a particular year. So being reminded to take the emotion out of the investing is very important.

0:06:22 - Speaker 2

Well, at the time we're taping this podcast, we are. This is our first episode. In July, sherry and the June inflation reports just came out I believe yesterday at the time we're taping this and it hit 9.1%, you know. So that's a new peak, and so the market has the last couple of two days or so again at the time we're taping this have been pretty volatile.

0:06:43 - Speaker 1

So they don't like that right.

0:06:44 - Speaker 2

They don't like those kinds of reports and of course neither does anybody else. So there's a lot to process, and that I mean 9%, is quite scary 9.1. So you know again, I think that's a great point you made about having that sounding board, that advice person that, hey, just talk me off the ledge or tell me you know like it's just good to have that resource when you're feeling overly emotional whether it's, you know, good, bad or indifferent, but somebody there to kind of talk to you and talk you through some of that stuff. So great point there. Let's jump into another one here. From a collection of advisors in a recent go banking rates article I guess that's a, maybe a website or something go banking rates shared the following advice do not change your allocation in your 401k following a market downturn without first making sure you have a thought out long term strategic financial plan in place.

What's your thoughts on that?

0:07:37 - Speaker 3

Again, it's why are you changing your allocation? Is it because you are nervous and you want to become more, go more conservative? Just because you're staying invested and just changing your allocation, that doesn't necessarily mean that's the right thing to do, because, again, are you buying out of the equities and going more conservative and you're doing the same thing. You're still selling low. So changing your allocation is could be, again, another emotional reaction.

So does your 401k allocation fit your plan? And if it does, then we have to ride it out and continue contributing to your 401k. Most importantly, but as long as your investments in your 401k match your strategic plan, you really should not be making any big changes. An idea, though, if you feel like you need to do something, is to rebalance. So rebalance your portfolio, get everything back to the original percentage as far as allocations go, and reallocation is good because it helps you to actually sell high and buy low sell out of what's a little overvalued right now and taking up a bigger chunk of your portfolio and reallocating that, taking that haircut and moving it to what's undervalued right now.

So if you feel like you need to do something, especially in your 401k, rebalancing is a good thing, but again, what's the motivation behind it? If it's purely emotional, then let's go back to your sounding board and talk it out.

0:09:16 - Speaker 2

Yeah, and I think I may have said this before in a prior podcast, but in these times I'm sure it's still pretty relevant. I think often as humans, we feel like if we don't do something, we're doing something wrong, so therefore we have to. We have like inaction is bad, so we feel like we have to take action and maybe sometimes the hardest thing actually is to do nothing, because you know, making wholesale changes when you don't have any sound advice or have a sound strategy is probably a mistake and you won't see that until a little bit later on. So I think it's probably again, it's that emotional component of being a human right when we're like well, if I don't do something, I gotta take action. Right, I gotta do something to make this better. You see a friend hurting, or something Like. We always feel like we have to do something, so I think Doing nothing is making a decision.

0:09:57 - Speaker 3

Yeah, yeah, and it could be good or bad, right, I mean?

0:10:00 - Speaker 2

but if doing something when you don't have a strategy is just, but it doesn't make a lot of sense to just hold well, I gotta make a change, because if I don't, you know things are gonna get worse. Well, you don't know that if you're just blindly making a change.

0:10:14 - Speaker 3

So If everything was going great, would you still wanna? Would you wanna make?

0:10:17 - Speaker 2

a change. Then Right, there you go.

0:10:19 - Speaker 3

Yeah, so just because things are a little rocky right now doesn't mean you have to make a decision or do something, because, conversely, if the market was riding high like it has been for the past 10 years, we weren't-. My allocation was fine, exactly thank you.

0:10:36 - Speaker 2

No wait you covered me, I covered you. That's how we do it. Well, let's finish off with a little Warren Buffett here, real fast. Obviously, you know we don't have Warren's buying power. We all know that when you know there's dips and downturns, that's when he goes in and does his thing. That's why he's Warren Buffett.

But he does have two pieces of advice that do feel contradictory, right, so? But maybe you can help us reconcile the you know the two, for those investors out there, or for those listeners out there who maybe are getting closer to retirement, right? So one of them, he says, is the most important thing to do if you find yourself in a hole is to stop digging. Well, okay, that makes a pretty good sense, right? But he also has that very famous one about being fearful when others are greedy.

So, right, when everything's overvalued, right, being a little nervous about that, which we were just at, and then being greedy when others are fearful, and that's typically what he's talking about when there's a downturn or a dip. That's when he's saying, hey, you know, if you can, you know you're buying in on the low. That's usually what we wanna try to do. And when you were just talking about the 401K a minute ago. If you're still working in a sense you kinda are, if you're still feeding your 401K, right, you're still kind of buying dollar cost averaging, all that kind of stuff.

0:11:45 - Speaker 3

Absolutely. It's the best thing to do when there are down markets is to keep on contributing. Don't stop those salary deferrals if you're still working right, so that's the best thing to do. So that's kind of the greedy when others are fearful is I'm still gonna contribute even though I may be a little bit nervous everyone I talk to is a little bit nervous but I'm gonna keep on keeping on because that's the right thing to do. So let me address the first part, the first quote when you find yourself in a hole it kind of goes back to our conversation that we just had a minute ago of when things are a little bit rocky and you feel like you have to do something. I think that's what he's trying to say here is just because things are a little bit rocky doesn't mean you have to do something, because when you're in a hole and you continue to dig, that hole's only gonna get bigger. So probably not the best thing to do if you're in a hole is to continue digging.

0:12:40 - Speaker 2

Yeah, exactly, exactly. And again, it's easy for all these different people to kind of give their talking head wisdoms and we do a podcast. We're obviously talking about things, but you're also still in the trenches daily working with your clients, working with folks in the field and serving folks. So I think there's a little bit of a difference between some of the talking heads that just get on there and that's their only job, right, is to kind of talk about various different pieces of advice or things of that nature. Because for us, just getting closer to retirement, living life, filling up our car, buying the groceries and, granted, these people do that stuff as well. But still, I think it's just when you see these numbers and you kind of feel this pressure, it's easy to get wrapped up into the emotion and that's when, again, that's when we make the biggest mistakes. So, how to survive a beer market? I think, if that's the topic of the podcast, is having a strategy, having a plan, talking with someone, so that you're not just making wholesale changes without really any direction.

0:13:37 - Speaker 3

Right, we're getting it from every angle right now, and if inflation was high and the market was doing great, we probably wouldn't be freaking out as much it would still stink, that we're paying 9% more for our stuff.

Or, conversely, if the market was volatile but inflation was manageable, so we're paying a reasonable amount to fill up our gas and get groceries, it wouldn't hurt as much. But we're kind of getting it from both sides right now. So we can't help but be emotional because we're feeling this every single day and we don't necessarily know when it's gonna end or see the end in sight. So it's okay to be emotional. Just let's not act completely on our emotions. Let's have a strategy and a plan and if the plan tells us a reaction works, then let's react, then let's do something.

0:14:25 - Speaker 2

Well said, well said Well. That's gonna do it this week for the podcast. Thanks for hanging out with us. We appreciate Sherri's time While she's on vacation as well, and so we appreciate your time checking out the podcast Money, chic, women and Retirement. Don't forget to subscribe to the podcast if you have not done so already. You can find us on Apple, google, spotify, iheart, stitcher all the major platforms. Just type in Money, chic, women and Retirement in the little search box. You do the whole name. It kind of makes it a little faster to zero in on it. Or you could just go to Sherri's website, greenwaywealthadvisorycom. That's GreenwayWealthAdvisorycom. If you've got questions or concerns and need some help before you take any action, always check with a qualified professional like Sherri. She is a financial advisor and a money coach at Greenway Wealth Advisory. Sherri, thanks for hanging out, spending some time on your vacation and I'll let you get back to it.

0:15:14 - Speaker 3

Go into the beach now.

0:15:15 - Speaker 2

All right, there you go. Enjoy. We'll see you next time here on Money, chic, women and Retirement with Sherri Rash. [""money, chic, women and Retirement""].

0:15:26 - Speaker 1

Discussions in this show should not be construed as specific recommendations or investment advice. Always consult with your investment professional before making important investment decisions. Securities offered through registered representatives of Cambridge Investment Research Inc. A broker-dealer member, finra SIPC advisory services through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors Inc. A registered investment advisor Cambridge and Greenway Wealth Advisory are not affiliated.

Shari helped my husband and I consolidate our finances and create a system that works for us. She is a great listener and very authentic - we are thrilled to have this trusted advisor on our team.

Jessica, Charleston
SC
Subscribe to newsletter
Subscribe to receive the latest blog posts to your inbox every week.